EVALUATING THE COEFFICIENTS OF A QUADRATIC COST CURVE FOR A THERMAL POWER PLANT WITHOUT FUEL INPUT DATA
Solving economic dispatch problems in a power system requires fuel cost curve coefficients. Therefore, regularly updating these coefficients is crucial for improving the accuracy of economic dispatch solutions. However, the necessary data to calculate these coefficients may not always be available. This paper proposes a method to estimate the quadratic cost coefficients of a thermal power plant when fuel input data is entirely unavailable. The approach involves computing the average heat rate at the plant�s minimum operating capacity using the average heat rate at maximum capacity sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the type of turbine used. Intermediate heat rate values are determined using the finite difference method. The corresponding fuel input for each heat rate and power output level is then calculated to generate the required fuel input versus power output dataset. The cost curve coefficients are estimated using the least squares method. This approach is tested on several Nigerian thermal power plants, and the estimated coefficients are compared with values from recent literature. The results show a maximum error of 27% compared to existing literature. To enhance the accuracy of cost coefficient estimation, future research should explore incorporating real-time operational data, advanced machine learning techniques, or regional calibration factors to further minimize estimation errors.
Authors : Musa, S.Y., Haruna, J., Ibrahim, V.M. and Abdullahi, A.
Category : Open Access Volume (Issue) : 10(2) Date Uploaded : 10th April 2025